Academic Research Archives

Staying Invested

February 11, 2019 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

If we could choose a near-perfect example of why we harp on staying invested and remaining committed to an investment strategy that’s rooted in academic science, it would be the returns that equities experienced during January 2019. After a terrible 4th Quarter in 2018, most global equity benchmarks roared back from their holiday blues.

Here’s where we stand so far (from 1.1.19 through 2.1.19)¹:

S&P 500 Growth	+7.51%
S&P 500 Value	+8.80%
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth	+9.73%
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value	+12.02%
S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	+8.81%
S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	+12.46%

A keen eye will notice a couple of points with the data above that coincide with our Investment Philosophy and why staying invested was far better than selling out at the end of December. First, Small and Mid-Caps outperformed Large Caps. Second, Value in each market cap outperformed Growth. And while this is great news, it doesn’t mean that we’re now in the clear. In fact, I wouldn’t let any single month of data, either good or bad, persuade you to make any portfolio strategy changes nor would I let it convince you of any strategy other than staying invested.

I highlight the points above merely to show that in any given month, the premiums we target for our clients will either be positive or negative and it’s impossible to predict one way or the other. By staying invested, the goal is to constantly pursue the premiums regardless of our personal outlook. I touched on this topic back in November of 2018 in a newsletter titled “Chasing Premiums;” contact us to be included on future newsletter mailings.

As mentioned above, Value outperformed Growth across market capitalization. Using the Small-Cap results as an example, historically speaking, the amount of outperformance in any given month is expected² to be 0.27% (statistical mean) . In simpler terms, we should expect to have Small Cap Value outperform Small Cap Growth by 0.27%. Holding all else equal, if Small Cap Growth returns 1.00% for a hypothetical month, we should expect Small Cap Value to return 1.27% in that same month. Make sense?

In January 2019, Small Cap Value outperformed growth by 3.65%, well above the expected 0.27%. How can this be? Let’s travel all the way back to statistics class…you know, the class most people hated! Whenever there’s a mathematical mean or average, there’s also a measurement of results spread around that mean; what we call a standard deviation. Using historical data, the standard deviation of Small Cap Value is 2.82%. This signifies that performance of this premium in any given month has shown to be anywhere from -5.37% to 5.91% calculated as 2 standard deviations from the mean. This represents 95% of the results within a normal distribution.

To take this one step further and bring us back full circle as to why we care about this data and why staying invested is preferred to not, think about the following question for a minute. If we expect the premium of Small Cap Value in a given month to be positive (0.27% is a positive number) what percent of observations over the last, say, 10 years, were not? The answer: 4.53% of the observations were negative. Let’s ask the same question for other time periods:

Any given month:	42.68% negative.
1 Year:	29.59% negative.
3 Years:	18.00% negative.
5 Years:	11.68% negative.
10 Years:	4.53% negative.
20 Years:	0.82% negative.
30 Years:	0.17% negative.

Notice a trend? The longer you pursue the premiums by staying invested, the greater your chance of realizing positive premium results.

I’ll reiterate the following point: do not let a single month of data, or even six single months of data, change your outlook and, thus, investment strategy nor let it cause you to do anything other than staying invested. Your investment strategy should be based on your time horizon, financial goals, and tolerance for volatility (risk) and should change only when one of those change. We help guide, manage, and make minor adjustments along the way for our clients and we’d love to help you and your family too. Get in touch today to begin your journey.

Image Credit: MCLB Albany – navigating by use of compass and data – not by gut feelings and emotion.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/MarketCommentary/2019/2/4/week-of-february-4th
I italicize the word “expect” on purpose – we expect these results because of past statistically significant observations, they are not guaranteed results. Very little is guaranteed in the investor world.
French, K. (2018) Volatility Lessons: What do past returns say about future performance. Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.

What are Alternative Investments?

August 24, 2018 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

Diversification has been called the only free lunch in investing, so what’s the alternative?

This idea is based on research showing that diversification, through a combination of assets like stocks and bonds, could reduce volatility without reducing expected return or increase expected return without increasing volatility compared to those individual assets alone. Many investors have taken notice, and today, highly diversified portfolios of global stocks and bonds are readily available to investors at a comparatively low cost. A global stock portfolio can hold thousands of stocks from over 40 countries around the world, and a global bond portfolio can be diversified across bonds issued by many different governments and companies and in many different currencies.

Some investors, in search of additional potential volatility reduction or return enhancement opportunities, may even try to extend the opportunity set beyond stocks and bonds to other assets, many of which are commonly referred to as “alternative investments.” The types of offerings labeled as alternative investments today are wide and varied. Depending on who you talk with, this category can include, but is not limited to, different types of hedge fund strategies, private equity, commodities, and so on. These alternative investments are often marketed as having greater return potential than traditional stocks or bonds or low correlations with other asset classes.

In recent years, “liquid alternative investments” have increased in popularity considerably. This sub-category of alternative investments consists of mutual funds that may start from the same building blocks as the global stock and bond market but then select, weight, and even short securities¹ in an attempt to deliver positive returns that differ from the stock and bond markets. Exhibit 1 shows how the growth in several popular classifications of liquid alternative investments mutual funds in the US has ballooned over the past several years.

The growth in this category of funds is somewhat remarkable given their poor historical performance over the preceding decade. Exhibit 2 illustrates that the annualized return for such strategies over the last decade has tended to be underwhelming when compared to less complicated approaches such as a simple stock or bond index. The return of this category has even failed to keep pace with the most conservative of investments. For example, the average annualized return for these products over the period measured was less than the return of T-bills but with significantly more volatility.

While expected returns from such strategies are unknown, the costs and turnover associated with them are easily observable. The average expense ratio of such products tends to be significantly higher than a long-only stock or bond approach. These high costs by themselves may pose a significant barrier to such strategies delivering their intended results to investors. Combine this with the high turnover many of these strategies may generate and it is not challenging to understand possible reasons for their poor performance compared to more traditional stock and bond indices.

This data by itself, though, does not warrant a wholesale condemnation of evaluating assets beyond stocks or bonds for inclusion in a portfolio. The conclusion here is simply that, given the ready availability of low cost and transparent stock and bond portfolios, the intended benefits of some alternative investments strategies may not be worth the added complexity and costs.

CONCLUSION

When confronted with choices about whether to add additional types of assets or strategies to a portfolio for diversification beyond stocks, bonds, and cash it may help to ask three simple questions.

What is this alternative getting me that is not already in my portfolio?
If it is not in my portfolio, can I reasonably expect that including it will increase expected returns or reduce expected volatility?
Is there an efficient and cost-effective way to get exposure to this alternative investments asset class or strategy?

If investors are left with doubts about any of these three questions it may be wise to use caution before proceeding. Our financial advisors can help investors answer these questions and ultimately decide if a given strategy is right for them. Have questions or want to find out if alternative investments are right for your portfolio and financial goals? Get in touch today.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS STRATEGY DEFINITIONS

Absolute Return: Funds that aim for positive return in all market conditions. The funds are not benchmarked against a traditional long-only market index but rather have the aim of outperforming a cash or risk-free benchmark.

Equity Market Neutral: Funds that employ portfolio strategies that generate consistent returns in both up and down markets by selecting positions with a total net market exposure of zero.

Long/Short Equity: Funds that employ portfolio strategies that combine long holdings of equities with short sales of equity, equity options, or equity index options. The fund may be either net long or net short depending on the portfolio manager’s view of the market.

Managed Futures: Funds that invest primarily in a basket of futures contracts with the aim of reduced volatility and positive returns in any market environment. Investment strategies are based on proprietary trading strategies that include the ability to go long and/or short.

Category descriptions are based on Lipper Class Codes provided in the CRSP Survivorship bias-free Mutual Fund Database.

A short position is the sale of a borrowed security. Short positions benefit if the borrowed security falls in value.
Written by Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors, LLC.
Top image credit: InvestmentZen

Where is the Value Premium?

July 6, 2018 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

From 1928–2017 the value premium¹ in the US had a positive annualized return of approximately 3.5%². In seven of the last 10 calendar years, however, the value premium in the US has been negative. This has prompted some investors to wonder if such an extended period of underperformance may be cause for concern. But are periods of underperformance in the value premium that unusual? We can look to history to help make sense of this question.

SHORT TERM RESULTS

Exhibit 1 shows yearly observations of the US value premium going back to 1928. We can see the annual arithmetic average for the premium is close to 5%, but in any given year the premium has varied widely, sometimes experiencing extreme positive or negative performance. In fact, there are only a handful of years that were within a 2% range of the annual average—most other years were farther above or below the mean. In the last 10 years alone there have been premium observations that were negative, positive, and in line with the historical average. This data helps illustrate that there is a significant amount of variability around how long it may take a positive value premium to materialize.

Exhibit 1. Yearly Observations of Premiums, Value minus Growth: US Markets, 1928–2017³

LONG TERM RESULTS

But what about longer-term underperformance? While the current stretch of extended underperformance for the value premium may be disappointing, it is not unprecedented. Exhibit 2 documents 10-year annualized performance periods for the value premium, sorted from lowest to highest by end date (calendar year).

This chart shows us that the best 10-year period for the value premium was from 1941–1950 (at top), while the worst was from 1930–1939 (at bottom). In most cases, we can see that the value premium was positive over a given 10-year period. As the arrow indicates, however, the value premium for the most recent 10 year period (ending in 2017) was negative. To put this in context, the most recent 10 years is one of 13 periods since 1937 that had a negative annualized value premium. Of these, the most recent period of underperformance has been fairly middle-of-the-road in magnitude.

Exhibit 2. Historical Observations of 10-Year Premiums, Value minus Growth:
US Markets 10-Year Periods ending 1937–2017⁴

While there is uncertainty around how long periods of underperformance may last, historically the frequency of a positive value premium has increased over longer time horizons. Exhibit 3 shows the percentage of time that the value premium was positive over different time periods going back to 1926. When the length of time measured increased, the chance of a positive value premium increased. For example, when the time period measured goes from five years to 10 years, the frequency of positive average premiums increased from 75% to 84%.

Exhibit 3. Historical Performance of Premiums over Rolling Periods, July 1926–December 2017⁵

CONCLUSION

What does all of this mean for investors? While a positive value premium is never guaranteed, the premium has historically had a greater chance of being positive the longer the time horizon observed. Even with long-term positive results though, periods of extended underperformance can happen from time to time. Because the value premium has not historically materialized in a steady or predictable fashion, a consistent investment approach that maintains emphasis on value stocks in all market environments may allow investors to more reliably capture the premium over the long run. Additionally, keeping implementation costs low and integrating multiple dimensions of expected stock returns (such as size and profitability) can improve the consistency of expected outperformance. If you are reading this and are not sure what we are discussing, don’t worry; it simply means you haven’t had a chance to sit down with us to explore our Investment Philosophy. We manage clients’ financial lives and portfolios using an academic methodology – one of which is pursuing the value premium. Get in touch today to see how one of our Charleston Financial Advisors can help you.

The value premium is the return difference between stocks with low relative prices (value) and stocks with high relative prices (growth).
Computed as the return difference between the Fama/French US Value Research Index and the Fama/French US Growth Research Index. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French.
In US dollars. The one-year relative price premium is computed as the one-year compound return on the Fama/French US Value Research Index minus the one-year compound return on the Fama/French US Growth Research Index. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
In US dollars. The 10-year rolling relative price premium is computed as the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Value Research Index minus the 10-year annualized compound return on the Fama/French US Growth Research Index. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
In US dollars. Based on rolling annualized returns using monthly data. Rolling multiyear periods overlap and are not independent. Fama/French indices provided by Ken French. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does
not reflect the expenses associated with the management
of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors, LLC

Recent Market Volatility

February 13, 2018 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

After a period of relative calm in the markets, recent market volatility in the stock market has resulted in renewed anxiety for many investors. From February 1–5, the US market (as measured by the Russell 3000 Index) fell almost 6%, resulting in many investors wondering what the future holds and if they should make changes to their portfolios.¹While it may be difficult to remain calm during a substantial market decline, it is important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing. Additionally, for long-term investors, reacting emotionally to volatile markets may be more detrimental to portfolio performance than the drawdown itself.

Intra-year declines

Exhibit 1 shows calendar year returns for the US stock market since 1979, as well as the largest intra-year declines that occurred during a given year. During this period, the average intra-year decline was about 14%. About half of the years observed had declines of more than 10%, and around a third had declines of more than 15%. Despite substantial intra-year drops, calendar year returns were positive in 32 years out of the 37 examined. This goes to show just how common market declines are and how difficult it is to say whether a large intra-year decline will result in negative returns over the entire year.

Recent Market Volatility — Exhibit 1: US Market Intra-Year Gains and Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns, 1979–2017. ²

Reacting Impacts Performance

If one was to try and time the market in order to avoid the potential losses associated with periods of increased volatility, would this help or hinder long-term performance? If current market prices aggregate the information and expectations of market participants, stock mispricing cannot be systematically exploited through market timing. In other words, it is unlikely that investors can successfully time the market, and if they do manage it, it may be a result of luck rather than skill. Further complicating the prospect of market timing being additive to portfolio performance is the fact that a substantial proportion of the total return of stocks over long periods comes from just a handful of days. Since investors are unlikely to be able to identify in advance which days will have strong returns and which will not, the prudent course is likely to remain invested during periods of volatility rather than jump in and out of stocks. Otherwise, an investor runs the risk of being on the sidelines on days when returns happen to be strongly positive.

Exhibit 2 helps illustrate this point. It shows the annualized compound return of the S&P 500 Index going back to 1990 and illustrates the impact of missing out on just a few days of strong returns. The bars represent the hypothetical growth of $1,000 over the period and show what happened if you missed the best single day during the period and what happened if you missed a handful of the best single days. The data shows that being on the sidelines for only a few of the best single days in the market would have resulted in substantially lower returns than the total period had to offer.

Conclusion

While market volatility can be nerve-racking for investors, reacting emotionally and changing long-term investment strategies in response to short-term declines could prove more harmful than helpful. By adhering to a well-thought-out investment plan, ideally agreed upon in advance of periods of volatility, investors may be better able to remain calm during periods of short-term uncertainty. If you find that you aren’t completely confident in your long-term investment strategy, give us a call

1. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

2.In US dollars. US Market is measured by the Russell 3000 Index. Largest Intra-Year Gain refers to the largest market increase from trough to peak during the year. Largest Intra-Year Decline refers to the largest market decrease from peak to trough during the year. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.

3. In US dollars. For illustrative purposes. The missed best day(s) examples assume that the hypothetical portfolio fully divested its holdings at the end of the day before the missed best day(s), held cash for the missed best day(s), and reinvested the entire portfolio in the S&P 500 at the end of the missed best day(s). Annualized returns for the missed best day(s) were calculated by substituting actual returns for the missed best day(s) with zero. S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. One-Month US T- Bills is the IA SBBI US 30 Day TBill TR USD, provided by Ibbotson Associates via Morningstar Direct. Data is calculated off rounded daily index values.

4. Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors, LLC.

Investing in Uncertainty

July 17, 2017 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” – Voltaire

“The market hates uncertainty” has been a common enough saying in recent years, but how logical is it? There are many different aspects to uncertainty, some that can be measured and some that cannot. Uncertainty is an unchangeable condition of existence. As individuals, we can feel more or less uncertain, but that is a distinctly human phenomenon. Rather than ebbing and flowing with investor sentiment, uncertainty is an inherent and ever-present part of investing in markets. Any investment that has an expected return above the prevailing “risk-free rate” (think treasury bills for investors) involves trading off certainty for a potentially increased return.

Consider this concept through the lens of stock vs. bond investments; what we call the first premium during our portfolio reviews. Stocks have higher expected returns than bonds largely because there is more uncertainty about the future state of the world for equity investors than bond investors. Bonds, for the most part, have fixed coupon payments and a maturity date at which principal is expected to be repaid. Stocks have neither. Bonds also sit higher in a company’s capital structure. In the event a firm goes bust, bondholders get paid before stockholders. So, do investors avoid stocks in favor of bonds as a result of this increased uncertainty? Quite the contrary, many investors end up allocating capital to stocks due to their higher expected return. In the end, many investors are often willing to make the tradeoff of bearing some increased uncertainty for potentially higher returns.

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY EMOTIONS

While the statement “the market hates uncertainty” may not be totally logical, it doesn’t mean it lacks educational value. Thinking about what the statement is expressing allows us to gain insight into the mindset of individuals. The statement attempts to personify the market by ascribing the very real nervousness and fear felt by some investors when volatility increases. In behavioral finance, we feel losses more than we feel gains. It is recognition of the fact that when markets go up and down, many investors struggle to separate their emotions from their investments. It ultimately tells us that for many an investor, regardless of whether markets are reaching new highs or declining, changes in market prices (equating to changes in your portfolio values) can be a source of anxiety.

Watch: Can you Predict a Good time to Buy Stocks?

During these periods, it may not feel like a good time to invest. Only with the benefit of hindsight do we feel as if we know whether any time period was a good one to be invested. Unfortunately, while the past may be prologue, the future will forever remain uncertain. It is without a doubt, impossible to predict if today is the highest of highs or lowest of lows. For this reason, we believe you should remain invested through all periods.

STAYING IN YOUR SEAT DURING UNCERTAINTY: HOW LONG IS LONG-TERM?

In a recent interview, Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP (DFA Funds), David Booth, was asked about what it means to be a long-term investor:

“People often ask the question, ‘How long do I have to wait for an investment strategy to pay off? How long do I have to wait so I’m confident that stocks will have a higher return than money market funds, or have a positive return?’ And my answer is it’s at least one year longer than you’re willing to give. There is no magic number. Risk is always there.”

Part of being able to stay unemotional during periods when it feels like uncertainty has increased is having an appropriate asset allocation that is in line with an investor’s willingness and ability to bear risk. It also helps to have a partner like us who consistently monitors your portfolio Riskalyze Score to ensure it remains on course.

Remember that during what feels like good times and bad, one wouldn’t expect to earn a higher return without taking on some form of risk. How much risk to take depends solely on your financial goals. While a decline in markets may not feel good, having a portfolio you are comfortable with, understanding that uncertainty is part of investing, and sticking to a plan that is agreed upon in advance and reviewed on a regular basis can help keep investors from reacting emotionally. We believe that when you approach your wealth management with us as your partner and with this mindset, it can ultimately lead to a better investment experience.

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors