Behavior Finance Archives

Outguessing the Market

July 8, 2019 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

Try outguessing the market. Over the course of a summer, it’s not unusual for the stock market to be a topic of conversation at barbeques or other social gatherings. A neighbor or relative might ask about which investments are good at the moment. The lure of getting in at the right time or avoiding the next downturn may tempt even disciplined, long-term investors. The reality of successfully outguessing the market, however, isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.

OUTGUESSING THE MARKET IS DIFFICULT

Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges. First and foremost, markets are fiercely competitive and adept at processing information. During 2018, a daily average of $462.8 billion in equity trading took place around the world.² The combined effect of all this buying and selling is that available information, from economic data to investor preferences and so on, is quickly incorporated into market prices. Trying to time the market based on an article from this morning’s newspaper or a segment from financial television? It’s likely that information is already reflected in prices by the time an investor can react to it.

Dimensional recently studied the performance of actively managed mutual funds and found that even professional investors have difficulty beating the market: over the last 20 years, 77% of equity funds and 92% of fixed income funds failed to survive and outperform their benchmarks after costs.³

Further complicating matters, for investors to have a shot at successfully timing the market, they must make the call to buy or sell stocks correctly not just once, but twice. Professor Robert Merton, a Nobel laureate, said it well in a recent interview with Dimensional:

“Timing markets is the dream of everybody. Suppose I could verify that I’m a .700 hitter in calling market turns. That’s pretty good; you’d hire me right away. But to be a good market timer, you’ve got to do it twice. What if the chances of me getting it right were independent each time? They’re not. But if they were, that’s 0.7 times 0.7. That’s less than 50-50. So, market timing is horribly difficult to do.”

TIME AND THE MARKET

The S&P 500 Index has logged an incredible decade. Should this result impact investors’ allocations to equities? Exhibit 1 suggests that new market highs have not been a harbinger of negative returns to come. The S&P 500 went on to provide positive average annualized returns over one, three, and five years following new market highs.

Exhibit 1. Average Annualized Returns After New Market Highs S&P 500, January 1926–December 2018⁴

CONCLUSION

Outguessing the market is more difficult than many investors might think. While favorable timing is theoretically possible, there isn’t much evidence that it can be done reliably, even by professional investors. The positive news is that investors don’t need to be able to time markets to have a good investment experience. Over time, capital markets have rewarded investors who have taken a long-term perspective and remained disciplined in the face of short-term noise. By focusing on the things they can control (like having an appropriate asset allocation, diversification, and managing expenses, turnover, and taxes) investors can better position themselves to make the most of what capital markets have to offer. If you’re looking for a better investment experience, please contact one of our advisors today.

Written by Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors, LLC
In US dollars. Source: Dimensional, using data from Bloomberg LP. Includes primary and secondary exchange trading volume globally for equities. ETFs and funds are excluded. Daily averages were computed by calculating the trading volume of each stock daily as the closing price multiplied by shares traded that day. All such trading volume is summed up and divided by 252 as an approximate number of annual trading days.
Mutual Fund Landscape 2019.
In US dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. New market highs are defined as months ending with the market above all previous levels for the sample period. Annualized compound returns are computed for the relevant time periods subsequent to new market highs and averaged across all new market high observations. There were 1,115 observation months in the sample. January 1990–present: S&P 500 Total Returns Index. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. January 1926–December 1989; S&P 500 Total Return Index, Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago. For illustrative purposes only. Index is not available for direct investment; therefore, its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. There is always a risk that an investor may lose money.

Staying Invested

February 11, 2019 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

If we could choose a near-perfect example of why we harp on staying invested and remaining committed to an investment strategy that’s rooted in academic science, it would be the returns that equities experienced during January 2019. After a terrible 4th Quarter in 2018, most global equity benchmarks roared back from their holiday blues.

Here’s where we stand so far (from 1.1.19 through 2.1.19)¹:

S&P 500 Growth	+7.51%
S&P 500 Value	+8.80%
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth	+9.73%
S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value	+12.02%
S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	+8.81%
S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	+12.46%

A keen eye will notice a couple of points with the data above that coincide with our Investment Philosophy and why staying invested was far better than selling out at the end of December. First, Small and Mid-Caps outperformed Large Caps. Second, Value in each market cap outperformed Growth. And while this is great news, it doesn’t mean that we’re now in the clear. In fact, I wouldn’t let any single month of data, either good or bad, persuade you to make any portfolio strategy changes nor would I let it convince you of any strategy other than staying invested.

I highlight the points above merely to show that in any given month, the premiums we target for our clients will either be positive or negative and it’s impossible to predict one way or the other. By staying invested, the goal is to constantly pursue the premiums regardless of our personal outlook. I touched on this topic back in November of 2018 in a newsletter titled “Chasing Premiums;” contact us to be included on future newsletter mailings.

As mentioned above, Value outperformed Growth across market capitalization. Using the Small-Cap results as an example, historically speaking, the amount of outperformance in any given month is expected² to be 0.27% (statistical mean) . In simpler terms, we should expect to have Small Cap Value outperform Small Cap Growth by 0.27%. Holding all else equal, if Small Cap Growth returns 1.00% for a hypothetical month, we should expect Small Cap Value to return 1.27% in that same month. Make sense?

In January 2019, Small Cap Value outperformed growth by 3.65%, well above the expected 0.27%. How can this be? Let’s travel all the way back to statistics class…you know, the class most people hated! Whenever there’s a mathematical mean or average, there’s also a measurement of results spread around that mean; what we call a standard deviation. Using historical data, the standard deviation of Small Cap Value is 2.82%. This signifies that performance of this premium in any given month has shown to be anywhere from -5.37% to 5.91% calculated as 2 standard deviations from the mean. This represents 95% of the results within a normal distribution.

To take this one step further and bring us back full circle as to why we care about this data and why staying invested is preferred to not, think about the following question for a minute. If we expect the premium of Small Cap Value in a given month to be positive (0.27% is a positive number) what percent of observations over the last, say, 10 years, were not? The answer: 4.53% of the observations were negative. Let’s ask the same question for other time periods:

Any given month:	42.68% negative.
1 Year:	29.59% negative.
3 Years:	18.00% negative.
5 Years:	11.68% negative.
10 Years:	4.53% negative.
20 Years:	0.82% negative.
30 Years:	0.17% negative.

Notice a trend? The longer you pursue the premiums by staying invested, the greater your chance of realizing positive premium results.

I’ll reiterate the following point: do not let a single month of data, or even six single months of data, change your outlook and, thus, investment strategy nor let it cause you to do anything other than staying invested. Your investment strategy should be based on your time horizon, financial goals, and tolerance for volatility (risk) and should change only when one of those change. We help guide, manage, and make minor adjustments along the way for our clients and we’d love to help you and your family too. Get in touch today to begin your journey.

Image Credit: MCLB Albany – navigating by use of compass and data – not by gut feelings and emotion.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/MarketCommentary/2019/2/4/week-of-february-4th
I italicize the word “expect” on purpose – we expect these results because of past statistically significant observations, they are not guaranteed results. Very little is guaranteed in the investor world.
French, K. (2018) Volatility Lessons: What do past returns say about future performance. Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.

When Markets Drop

October 31, 2018 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

In the next couple of weeks, investors will begin receiving October portfolio statements from their custodians and may ask themselves what to do when markets drop. If you’re like most investors, you usually don’t take the time to check your account balances daily, online or through your mobile app, but rather only decide to look when you hear bleak headlines on the nightly news. And with recent headlines such as these, we can understand why:

“Stock market experts say this is a stumble, not a plunge”

“U.S. stocks close lower as Dow drops nearly 1,400 points in 2 days”

“Market timers say it’s still too early to jump back into stocks”

“Dow drops more than 1000 points in two days”

Here’s what to do when markets drop:

Understand that articles are written to trigger an emotional response.
Be rational and proactive, not emotional and reactive.
Address “1,000+ point drops” long before they happen.
Either hire an Investment Advisor with a Fiduciary Duty or have a battle buddy.

Journalists have a unique job; they pen headlines that are designed to invoke an emotional response to get readers to click on the article. And when markets drop, the headlines get more wild. More clicks = more traffic = more ad revenue. Let’s illustrate this point with two headlines. Which is more exciting?

“Dow Drops 1,000 points.”

“Dow closes down 3.7%.”

We’re willing to bet the “1,000 point” headline is more exciting for the mere psychological idea that 1,000 is larger than 3.7. But if the Dow is sitting at 27,000, these hypothetical headlines depict the same results, just written differently. While our example above is purely hypothetical, a seasoned investor needs to know when to dig deeper than flashy headlines.

The third principle of Our Investment Philosophy reads:

Emotions are Destructive. Reacting to current market conditions may lead one to making poor investment decisions at the worst times.

Market corrections and other major news events affecting the world tend to alter investor’s outlook about the future when markets drop. When you hear advisors suggesting you take a long-term approach, the advice can feel too cliché and ambiguous. We believe this advice is more about historical evidence and emotional pause rather than an effort to brush off the pain you may be feeling. When an investor is proactive, it means she has positioned her portfolio in a manner paralleled with market uncertainty. Recognize that markets rise and fall as they digest information daily. These movements are a fundamental part of being an investor and should be embraced rather than avoided. It is our opinion that one of the best ways to accomplish this is by having a globally diversified portfolio that pursues your financial goals and is based on your tolerance and capacity for risk. This means that rarely will you be 100% stocks, 100% cash, or 100% bonds. You’ll more than likely be a combination of each through all market conditions. How much of each is outside the purview of this blog post, but we’d love to sit down with you and build a portfolio just for you.

A principle of portfolio design is understanding the long-term characteristics and historical performance of a similar portfolio. While history may not be indicative of future results, it provides some insight into how one’s portfolio may have performed in past markets as well as the variability of returns over time. With this information and an understanding of your financial goals, it’s relatively easy to address 1,000+ point drops long before they happen. Often, the question isn’t about whether these drops in markets will occur, but rather, how much of the drop your portfolio will feel and what your reaction may be in those moments. Will you decided to sell everything and go to cash, will you double-down and buy more, or will you do nothing? We believe utilizing an intuitive risk tolerance assessment is a great starting point towards designing a personalized portfolio that is customized to you and your feelings.

As you plan for your family’s financial future, it can feel daunting to go at it alone. An easy way to address this is by having a trusted friend or partner who you can freely talk to about these personal issues, one you can rely on for accountability when markets drop, and one who goes through the same process as you. In the military, this person is often called a “battle buddy.” If you’re a DIY investor, do you have someone like this that you can rely on?

If not, another way is to hire someone to fulfill this role. An investment advisor with a Fiduciary Duty can not only help you structure your investments for market uncertainty, but also keep you invested when markets drop. It’s easy to hire any financial advisor to implement an investment strategy, but we find that non-investment related issues have a meaningful impact on an investor’s behavior. For these reasons, we believe working with a Fiduciary is the most prudent way to approach your relationship with financial advisors. And that’s precisely why we choose to be Fiduciaries. We’d love nothing more than earning the chance to meet you and learn how we can help make sudden market movements have a more meaningful impact in your life. Here’s how you can get in touch with us.

Sailing with the Tides and Winds

March 22, 2018 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

Embarking on a financial plan is like sailing around the world. The voyage won’t always go to plan, and there’ll be rough seas. But the odds of reaching your destination increase greatly if you are prepared, flexible, patient, and well-advised.

A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan at all. They embark without a clear sense of their destination. And once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat with inadequate provisions.

Likewise, in planning an investment journey, you need to decide on your goal. A first step might be to consider whether the goal is realistic and achievable. For instance, while you may long to retire in the south of France, you may not be prepared to sacrifice your needs today to satisfy that distant desire.

Once you are set on a realistic destination, you need to ensure you have the right portfolio to get you there. Have you planned for multiple contingencies? What degree of “bad weather” can your plan withstand along the way?

Key to a successful voyage is a good navigator. A trusted financial advisor is like that, regularly taking coordinates and making adjustments, if necessary. If your circumstances change, the investment advisor may suggest you replot your course.

As with the weather at sea, markets can be unpredictable. A sudden squall can whip up waves of volatility, tides can shift, and strong currents can threaten to blow you off course. Like a seasoned sailor, an experienced investment manager will work with the conditions.

Once the storm passes, you can pick up speed again. Just as a sturdy vessel will help you withstand most conditions at sea, a well-diversified portfolio can act as a bulwark against the sometimes tempestuous conditions in markets.

Circumnavigating the globe is not exciting every day. Patience is required with local customs and paperwork as you pull into different ports. Likewise, a lack of attention to costs and taxes is the enemy of many a long-term financial plan.

Distractions can also send investors, like sailors, off course. In the face of “hot” investment trends, it takes discipline not to veer from your chosen plan. Like the sirens of Greek mythology, media pundits can also be diverting, tempting you to change tack and act on news that is already priced in to markets.

A lack of flexibility is another impediment to a successful investment journey. If it doesn’t look as though you’ll make your destination in time, you may have to extend your voyage, take a different route to get there, or even moderate your goal.

The important point is that you become comfortable with the idea that uncertainty is inherent to the investment journey, just as it is with any sea voyage. That is why preparation and planning are so critical. While you can’t control every outcome, you can be prepared for the range of possibilities and understand that you have clear choices if things don’t go according to plan.

If you can’t live with the volatility, you can change your plan. If the goal looks unachievable, you can lower your sights. If it doesn’t look as if you’ll arrive on time, you can extend your journey.

Of course, not everyone’s journey is the same. Neither is everyone’s destination. We take different routes to different places, and we meet a range of challenges and opportunities along the way.

But for all of us, it’s critical that we are prepared for our journeys in the right vessel, keep our destinations in mind, stick with the plans, and have a trusted navigator to chart our courses and keep us on target. Ready to plot your course? Contact us today to see how our financial advisor can help you and subscribe to our weekly newsletter to stay in touch.

Written by Jim Parker, Outside the Flags series, Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors.

Investing in Uncertainty

July 17, 2017 by Justin M. Follmer, MBA, CFP®, AIF®

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” – Voltaire

“The market hates uncertainty” has been a common enough saying in recent years, but how logical is it? There are many different aspects to uncertainty, some that can be measured and some that cannot. Uncertainty is an unchangeable condition of existence. As individuals, we can feel more or less uncertain, but that is a distinctly human phenomenon. Rather than ebbing and flowing with investor sentiment, uncertainty is an inherent and ever-present part of investing in markets. Any investment that has an expected return above the prevailing “risk-free rate” (think treasury bills for investors) involves trading off certainty for a potentially increased return.

Consider this concept through the lens of stock vs. bond investments; what we call the first premium during our portfolio reviews. Stocks have higher expected returns than bonds largely because there is more uncertainty about the future state of the world for equity investors than bond investors. Bonds, for the most part, have fixed coupon payments and a maturity date at which principal is expected to be repaid. Stocks have neither. Bonds also sit higher in a company’s capital structure. In the event a firm goes bust, bondholders get paid before stockholders. So, do investors avoid stocks in favor of bonds as a result of this increased uncertainty? Quite the contrary, many investors end up allocating capital to stocks due to their higher expected return. In the end, many investors are often willing to make the tradeoff of bearing some increased uncertainty for potentially higher returns.

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY EMOTIONS

While the statement “the market hates uncertainty” may not be totally logical, it doesn’t mean it lacks educational value. Thinking about what the statement is expressing allows us to gain insight into the mindset of individuals. The statement attempts to personify the market by ascribing the very real nervousness and fear felt by some investors when volatility increases. In behavioral finance, we feel losses more than we feel gains. It is recognition of the fact that when markets go up and down, many investors struggle to separate their emotions from their investments. It ultimately tells us that for many an investor, regardless of whether markets are reaching new highs or declining, changes in market prices (equating to changes in your portfolio values) can be a source of anxiety.

Watch: Can you Predict a Good time to Buy Stocks?

During these periods, it may not feel like a good time to invest. Only with the benefit of hindsight do we feel as if we know whether any time period was a good one to be invested. Unfortunately, while the past may be prologue, the future will forever remain uncertain. It is without a doubt, impossible to predict if today is the highest of highs or lowest of lows. For this reason, we believe you should remain invested through all periods.

STAYING IN YOUR SEAT DURING UNCERTAINTY: HOW LONG IS LONG-TERM?

In a recent interview, Chairman of Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP (DFA Funds), David Booth, was asked about what it means to be a long-term investor:

“People often ask the question, ‘How long do I have to wait for an investment strategy to pay off? How long do I have to wait so I’m confident that stocks will have a higher return than money market funds, or have a positive return?’ And my answer is it’s at least one year longer than you’re willing to give. There is no magic number. Risk is always there.”

Part of being able to stay unemotional during periods when it feels like uncertainty has increased is having an appropriate asset allocation that is in line with an investor’s willingness and ability to bear risk. It also helps to have a partner like us who consistently monitors your portfolio Riskalyze Score to ensure it remains on course.

Remember that during what feels like good times and bad, one wouldn’t expect to earn a higher return without taking on some form of risk. How much risk to take depends solely on your financial goals. While a decline in markets may not feel good, having a portfolio you are comfortable with, understanding that uncertainty is part of investing, and sticking to a plan that is agreed upon in advance and reviewed on a regular basis can help keep investors from reacting emotionally. We believe that when you approach your wealth management with us as your partner and with this mindset, it can ultimately lead to a better investment experience.

Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors