Should Recent Events Change your Investment Strategy?

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Should Recent Events Change your Investment Strategy?

Should recent events change your investment strategy? Should anticipated future events change your investment strategy? When news breaks and markets move, content-starved media often invite talking heads to muse on the repercussions. Knowing the difference between this speculative opinion and actual facts can help investors stay disciplined during purported “crises.”

At the end of June this year, UK citizens voted in a referendum for the nation to withdraw from the European Union. The result, which defied the expectations of many, led to market volatility as participants weighed possible consequences.

Journalists responded by using the results to craft dramatic headlines and stories. The Washington Post said the vote had “escalated the risk of global recession, plunged financial markets into free fall, and tested the strength of safeguards since the last downturn seven years ago.”2

The Financial Times said “Brexit” had the makings of a global crisis. “[This] represents a wider threat to the global economy and the broader international political system,” the paper said. “The consequences will be felt across the world.”3

It is true there have been political repercussions from the Brexit vote. Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s prime minister and overhauled the cabinet. There are debates in Europe about how the withdrawal will be managed and the possible consequences for other EU members.

But within a few weeks of the UK vote, Britain’s top share index, the FTSE 100, hit 11-month highs. By mid-July, the US S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen to record highs. Shares in Europe and Asia also strengthened after dipping initially following the vote.

Yes, the Brexit vote did lead to initial volatility in markets, but this has not been exceptional or out of the ordinary. One widely viewed barometer is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX). Using S&P 500 stock index options, this index measures market expectations of near-term volatility.

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You can see by the chart above that while there was a slight rise in volatility around the Brexit result, it was insignificant relative to other major events of recent years, including the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the eurozone crisis of 2011, and the severe volatility in the Chinese domestic equity market in 2015.

None of this is intended to downplay the political and economic difficulties of Britain leaving the European Union, but it does illustrate the dangers of trying to second-guess markets and base an investment strategy on speculation.

Now the focus of speculation has turned to how markets might respond to the US presidential election. CNBC recently reported that surveys from Wall Street investment firms showed “growing concern” over how the race might play out.4

Given the examples above, would you be willing to make investment decisions based on this sort of speculation, particularly when it comes from the same people who pronounced on Brexit? And remember, not only must you correctly forecast the outcome of the vote, you have to correctly guess how the market will react.

Should recent events change your investment strategy? We don’t believe so. Should anticipated future events change your investment strategy? In our opinion, your investment strategy should change only when your long-term financial goals change. What we do know is that markets incorporate news instantaneously and that your best protection against volatility is to diversify both across and within asset classes, while remaining focused on your long-term investment goals.

The danger of investing based on recent events is that the situation can change by the time you act. A “crisis” can morph into something far less dramatic, and you end up responding to news that is already in the price.

Journalism is often described as writing history on the run. Don’t get caught investing the same way.

Working with a fiduciary can sometimes shed light in a new way, thereby, providing a perspective you may have been missing. Give us a call today and perhaps we can show you a few things about your current strategy and what changes, if any, could help you build more purpose to your financial goals.

Image Credit: frankieleon

 

  1. Post authored by Jim Parker, Outside the Flags, with edits by Coastal Wealth Advisors, LLC. Original article here.
  2. “Brexit Raises Risk of Global Recession as Financial Markets Plunge,” Washington Post, June 24, 2016.
  3. “Brexit and the Making of a Global Crisis,” Financial Times, June 25, 2016.
  4. “Investors are Finally Getting Nervous about the Election,” CNBC, July 13, 2016.

 

Where There’s a Will, There’s a Way

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WILL

We’ve all heard this phrase: where there’s a will, there’s a way. It’s typically said during difficult moments where success seems almost impossible; almost as if to say my determination will be enough to get through this trouble.

When we die, our troubles disappear for us…but not for those we love. Our loved ones inherit both the good and bad that accumulated during our lives. To make the life of your loved ones less troubling, perhaps you should think of this phrase a bit differently.

Where there’s a WILL, there’s a way.

A WILL is a legal document that transfers what you own to your beneficiaries upon your death. It also names an executor to carry out the terms of your WILL and a guardian for your minor children, if you have any. Your signature and those of witnesses make your WILL authentic. Witnesses don’t have to know what the WILL says, but they must watch you sign it and you must watch them witness it. Hand-written WILL s — called holographs — are legal in about half of the states, but most WILL s are typed and follow a standard format.

According to Legalzoom, it’s estimated that 55% of American adults don’t have a WILL or another estate plan in place. And that percentage is even worse among minorities – 68% for African-Americans and 74% of Hispanic-Americans.(1)

Without a WILL, you die intestate. The laws of your state then determine what happens to your estate and your minor children. This process, called administration, is governed by the probate court and is notoriously slow, often expensive, and subject to some surprising state laws. Do you really want a court deciding vital family matters such as how to divide your estate and custody of your children?

So, who needs a WILL?

We believe the short answer is everyone! However, it’s imperative to make a WILL as soon as you have any real assets, or get married, and certainly by the time you have children. Your WILL should contain several key points in order to be valid. The following list are some of the items that your WILL should address:

  • Your name and address.
  • A statement that you intend the document to serve as your WILL.
  • The names of the people and organizations — your beneficiaries — who will share in your estate.
  • The amounts of your estate to go to each beneficiary (usually in percentages rather than dollar amounts.)
  • An executor to oversee the disposition of your estate and trustee(s) to manage any trust(s) you may establish.
  • Alternates to provide both executor responsibilities and trustee(s).
  • A guardian to take responsibility for your minor children and possibly a trustee to manage the children’s assets in cooperation with the guardian.
  • Which assets should be used to pay estate taxes, probate fees and final expenses

The answers to these points should give your WILL the necessary resources to address what you wish to happen to your estate. We believe it’s very important to seek the professional skills and guidance of an estate planning attorney who can take your answers and draft a WILL that is completely tailored to you. Estate laws change over time and establishing a relationship with a local estate planning attorney can help you keep your legal documents up to date.

Check out: You don’t know what you don’t know until you know it.

We’re not attorneys, don’t give legal advice, and don’t receive any form of referral fee, but, we help our clients quarterback this discussion with a competent estate planning attorney. In fact, we’re often the first person family members call on to do a lot of the leg work during the time of a loved one’s unfortunate death. When a WILL isn’t present, or doesn’t accurately address your current assets and liabilities, it can create a lot of uncertainty, stress for family members, and costs at a time when they are mourning the loss of you. Get in touch with us today to start the process of gathering the information to create your WILL. Where there’s a WILL, there’s a way; you just need the determination and help to get it done.

1. http://info.legalzoom.com/statistics-last-wills-testaments-3947.html

 

Positive News Articles

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Positive News Articles

Where are all the positive news articles? Do you ever listen to the news and find yourself thinking that the world has gone to the dogs? The roll call of depressing headlines seems endless. But look beyond what the media calls news, and there also are a lot of things going right.

It’s true the world faces challenges in maintaining stable and well-functioning social, environmental, and economic systems. The legacy of the financial crisis is still with us, and concerns about climate change and sustainability are widespread.

Europe is grappling with a refugee crisis; China faces a difficult transition from an export and industrial-led economy to one driven by domestic demand; and the US is preoccupied with a sometimes rancorous election campaign.

But it’s also easy to overlook significant advances in raising the living standards of millions, increasing global cooperation on sustainability, and efforts to build greater transparency and trust in financial institutions.

Many of the 10 developments cited below don’t tend to make the front pages of daily newspapers in the form of positive news articles or the lead items in the TV news, but they’re worth keeping in mind on those occasions when you feel overwhelmed by all the grim headlines.

So here’s an alternative positive news articles bulletin:

  1. Over the last 25 years, 2 billion people globally have moved out of extreme poverty, according to the latest United Nations Human Development Report.1
  2. Over the same period, mortality rates among children under the age of 5 have fallen by 53%, from 91 deaths per 1000 to 43 deaths per 1000.
  3. In September 2015, all members of the UN set 17 sustainable development goals for 2030, including targets for eliminating poverty and hunger and lifting standards in health, education, water, energy, and infrastructure.
  4. Global trade has expanded as a proportion of GDP from 20% in 1995 to 30% by 2014, signaling greater global integration.2
  5. Global bank regulators recently announced that since the financial crisis they have implemented reforms to reduce leverage, address systemic risk, and build capital buffers into the banking system.3
  6. The world’s biggest economy, the US, has been recovering. Unemployment has halved in six years from 10% to 5%.4
  7. Global oil prices, while about 80% up from January’s 13-year lows, are still 50% below where they were two years ago. While bad news for the oil sector, lower prices also raise real incomes for consumers, increase profits outside energy, and decrease costs of production.
  8. While fossil fuels still play a major role in the economy, renewable energy sources—such as solar and wind— accounted for nearly 22% of global electricity generation in 2013 and are seen rising to at least 26% by 2020.5
  9. We live in an era of rapid innovation. One report estimates the digital economy now accounts for 22.5% of global economic output and projects digital technologies could generate $2 trillion of additional output by 2020.6
  10. The growing speed and scale of data are increasing global connectedness and transforming industries as new discoveries are made in such areas as engineering, medicine, food, energy, and sustainability.

No doubt many of these advances will lead to new business and investment opportunities. Of course, not all will succeed. But the important point is that science and innovation are evolving in ways that can help mankind. The world is far from perfect. The human race faces major challenges. But just as it is important to be realistic and aware of the downside of our condition, we must also recognize the major advances that we are making.

Just as there is reason for caution, there is always room for hope. And keeping these positive news articles and trends in mind can help when you feel overwhelmed by all the bad news. Working with an investment advisor and financial planner can help you keep a perspective on the positive news articles that have an impact on your portfolio and long-term financial plan. Looking at the daily barrage of negativity through traditional media outlets as well as Facebook and other social media platforms can seriously dampen your mood. A constant state of depressed emotions and feelings can have lasting negative effects on the decisions you make with your money. One of the core investment philosophies of Coastal Wealth Advisors is keeping emotions in check – thereby helping to prevent our clients from making poor decisions at the worst times. Let us be your fiduciary; let us help you towards a more meaningful investing and planning experience. Get in touch today to learn about our unique financial planning process.

Image credit: Nitin Dhumal

1.”Human Development Report 2015: Work for Human Development,” United Nations.
2.”International Trade Statistics 2015,” World Trade Organization.
3.”Finalising Post-Crisis Reforms: An Update,” Bank for International Settlements, November 2015.
4. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 26, 2016.
5. “Renewable Energy Statistics,” International Energy Agency, March 2016.
6. “Digital Disruption: The Growth Multiplier,” Accenture and Oxford Economics, February 2016
7. Authored by Jim Parker of Dimensional Fund Advisors. Original article here.

Financial Knowledge

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Not everyone is knowledgeable about money and finances, however, it’s a learning process. Keep in mind you don’t know what you don’t know until you know it and we’re here to help. Gaining financial knowledge comes with time and some help. Let us help educate you on a wide range of topics from financial planning, 401k rollovers, and even investing. Let’s get started today to work towards expanding your financial knowledge. We’ll work with you through every step of the way. Give us a call to set up an appointment.

Financial Tips for Graduates

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financial tips for graduates

We thought it appropriate to give you 5 Financial Tips for Graduates because we know when you’re just beginning to gain your independence in the world, the thought of managing your finances is a terrifying. For most of us, our parents were there to help us along the way with paying bills, rent, and college tuition. But when graduation rolls around, the reality and panic begins to set in that you’re officially an adult. Although this is an especially difficult time for young adults, it also can be stressful on parents as you completely let go and allow your child to enter the real world. For these reasons, we thought it would be helpful to discuss 5 financial tips for graduates and their parents to feel comfortable during this life transition.

 

5 Financial Tips for Graduates:

  1. Create a Budget

Although this may seem obvious, it is extremely important, and RARELY done! This is probably the first time in your life that a large, steady paycheck is being deposited into your bank account. For this reason it can be very tempting to impulsively spend, but this is when a well-organized budget comes into play. It’s okay to treat yourself occasionally, but just remember to budget for those guilty pleasures. Even though, creating a budget may seem like a burden, there are countless resources, such as financial smart apps, to help you easily manage your budget. Using a budget now will create healthy financial habits down the road making life much easier for you.

  1. Start Saving for an Emergency Fund

Saving is the key to financial success, so why not get a jump-start on this at a young age? Saving is a habit and the earlier you develop this habit the better, especially due to the volatile state of our current economy. Life throws you curve balls, so it’s important to have an emergency fund. You never know when you may be laid off, are involved in a car accident, or have costly medical expenses. We suggest saving six to nine months worth of expenses into your emergency fund, so you can be prepared in the event of one of these worst-case scenarios.

  1. Begin Funding a Retirement Plan

You just graduated college and retirement is probably the last thing on your mind. Numerous studies show that it’s crucial to start contributing to your retirement fund as early as possible. This is definitely not the most glamorous way to use your paycheck, but it will be beneficial for you in the long run. Many employers match a portion of what you contribute to your 401k. This is an exceptional perk that employer’s offer and if yours does then take advantage of it! If you can swing it, contribute the maximum amount that they match. It’s pretty much like getting free money. You’ll be thankful you did many years down the road. If your company does not have a retirement plan, then don’t worry, you’ll just have to start an IRA.

  1. Start Paying off Student Loans

After four years of college, most of us will likely accrue some student loan debt. While we are of the belief that this would be considered “good” debt, if there is arguably such a thing, it’s important to understand how paying this down consistently benefits you in the long-run. We know you’ve seen them…the countless ads on your Facebook feed about student loan consolidation help and other various debt programs out there. We’ll get to the bottom of these in future posts but know that a simple phone call to your loan servicer (the company that mails you the statement) is all you’ll likely need to consolidate all of your student loans. No need to pay another company to consolidate your federal loans into private loans. There are countless options to consolidate with various terms – all designed to fit your lifestyle. How awesome is that?! Keep in mind that different loan types have varying consolidation opportunities and rules. We suggest you do whatever you can to choose a fixed rate repayment plan and make it a line-item in your budget. Try to automate the payment each month too that way you’ll help your credit score by showing consistently on-time payments. The other benefit to federal student loan debt is the debt forgiveness in the event of your death – your spouse or family won’t be liable; basically the debt will die with you.

  1. Protect your Credit Score

It can be tempting to swipe the credit card whenever you get the desire to make a purchase, but take caution! Be sure to pay all bills on time because even if you miss one payment your credit score could take a plunge. There are many dangers associated with poor credit that can make it difficult to get a good job or approval for an apartment lease, not to mention paying higher interest rates for years to come just because you missed a payment. To avoid these problems and to ensure a high credit score, set up automatic payments for your regular expenses, such as rent and insurance. If you can swing it, choose to use a software solution like Credit Karma to help you monitor your score and to ensure items reported to your report are accurate.

During this monumental time of your life, we want to help guide you towards financial independence. We’re a Johns Island Financial Advisor that specializes in financial planning and investment advice. We’re also pretty laid back and genuinely fun to be around, ha! Let us help you get off to the right start as you begin the next chapter of your life. Contact us today to set up a complimentary appointment.

Image Credit: Ian Norman

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